Mercatus Site Feed http://mercatus.org/feeds/home/publication/federal-spending-without-sequester-cuts en FCC Open Internet Reply Comments http://mercatus.org/publication/fcc-open-internet-reply-comments <h5> Publication </h5> <p class="p1">Designating Internet service providers (ISPs) as telecommunications providers and common carriers subject to Title II regulations contradicts the stated intention of Congress:</p> <p class="p2">It is the policy of the United States . . . to preserve the vibrant and competitive free market that presently exists for the Internet and other interactive computer services, unfettered by Federal or State regulation.<sup>1</sup></p> <p class="p3">The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) should tread cautiously as it considers once again bringing ISPs and parts of the Internet under greater regulatory scrutiny. The regulatory zeal and mixed messages displayed by net neutrality supporters is alarming considering the stakes and should signal to the FCC that regulatory humility is called for.</p> <p class="p4">This reply comment argues that imposing regulatory burdens on ISPs and Internet companies would likely harm consumers and competition. Bringing ISPs under Title II’s obligations would also be legally unsound. First, as&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 12px;">commenters point out, the Internet functions very differently from telephone networks and common carriers. This has legal import and it is uncertain, to say the least, that the FCC could reinterpret the law, “reclassify” broadband provision as “telecommunications,” and have that designation upheld by a court. Second, years of carrier experimentation with priority traffic reveal that the “virtuous cycle” of online innovation is not harmed when ISPs engage in nonneutral behavior. That open Internet supporters cannot agree on whether and in what manner non-neutral behavior should be allowed reveals the ambiguity around priority treatment of broadband traffic. Because priority treatment tends to be used by smaller carriers serving consumers with idiosyncratic needs, regulators should permit nonneutral behavior except when it is anticompetitive or harming consumer welfare. Finally, Title II has several undesirable ancillary effects, including tacitly sending an encouraging message to illiberal foreign governments about Internet regulation.</span></p><p class="p1">DISCUSSION</p> <p class="p3">Though an effective rallying cry, there is no consensus about what “net neutrality” or the “open Internet” means when it comes to putting rules on paper. Professor Barbara van Schewick has said, “If there is no rule against blocking in a proposal, it’s not a network neutrality proposal. That’s the one defining factor that holds all net neutrality proposals together.”<sup>2</sup> That limitation—a no-blocking provision—is supported by nearly every commenter in this proceeding, including the ISPs. Agreement on what else neutrality requires is difficult to ascertain. Commenters’ demands for regulatory action under Title II of the Communications Act are many and often mutually exclusive, rendering the campaign spurring the FCC to act nearly incomprehensible. The motivating factor is not the legality and efficacy of Title II rules but a general sense of grievance towards ISPs. It should trouble the commission that there is no agreement on even basic facts about what the FCC should attempt to accomplish. Net neutrality proponents admit in this proceeding that while the open Internet debate originally focused on blocking and discrimination on the “last mile” connection between an ISP and its customer, “it has since evolved into a number of sub-debates,”<sup>3</sup> including interconnection, content delivery networks, data limitations, zero-rated applications, and even whether search algorithms need to be neutral. Those sub-debates themselves reveal disagreements in the general net neutrality community.</p> <p class="p4">Commenters favoring “strong” net neutrality—like Free Press and Netflix—unconvincingly assert that common carrier regulation is deregulatory.<sup>4</sup> This view is undermined, ironically, by the very commenters whipped into a frenzy by these net neutrality proponents. As one representative commenter says, “I support a Title II approach— we need more regulation.”<sup>5</sup></p> <p class="p5">Similarly, while Title II supporter Public Knowledge distances itself from designating broadband a public utility,<sup>6</sup> Popular Resistance, ColorOfChange.org,<sup>7</sup> and literally tens of thousands of commenters characterize net neutrality as making the Internet a “public utility regulated in the public interest without discrimination.”<sup>8</sup></p> <p class="p4">The FCC has confronted similar grievances before. Many parties bemoaned the purported loss of the “end-to-end” principle in the late 1990s and the FCC’s choice a few years later to decline to impose open access on cable modems.<sup>9</sup> Advocates wanted ISPs treated as Title II common carriers then. Many of their predictions about cable investment and broadband innovation proved incorrect,<sup>10 </sup>and the FCC should be skeptical of their repackaged arguments today.</p> <p class="p6"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/Skorup-FCC-open-internet-PIC-091514.pdf">Continue reading&nbsp;</a></p> http://mercatus.org/publication/fcc-open-internet-reply-comments Mon, 15 Sep 2014 16:25:14 -0400 Why the Economic Gender Gap Will Eventually Close http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/why-economic-gender-gap-will-eventually-close <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">Debates over the supposed differences between men and women are a staple of pop culture. But two new books offer an economic look at the evidence, giving support to both pessimistic and optimistic perspectives on the direction of gender relations and the prospects for more fairness and equality.</p> <p class="p1">The first book, “<a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10362.html">Why Gender Matters in Economics</a>” (Princeton University Press, 2014) by Mukesh Eswaran, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia, draws on data from past economic studies conducted under laboratory conditions to show how gender influences financial actions and relationships.</p> <p class="p1">In one set of these experiments, called the dictator game, women were found to be more generous than men. Players were given $10 and allowed but not required to hand out some of it to a hidden and anonymous partner.&nbsp;<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2565789">Women, on average</a>, gave away $1.61 of the $10, whereas men gave away only 82 cents.</p> <p class="p1">In another test, called the ultimatum game, one player received $10 and then decided how much of it to offer to a partner. (Let’s say the first player suggests, “$8 for me, $2 for you.” If the respondent accepts the offer, that’s what each gets. If the respondent is offended by the unequal division or dislikes it for any other reason, he or she may refuse, and then no one gets anything.)</p> <p class="p1">The depressing news was this: <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2001.tb00060.x/abstract">Both men and women</a> made lower offers, on average, when the responder was female. Male proposers offered an average of $4.73 to male respondents, but only $4.43 to women. More painful yet was the behavior of female proposers, who, on average, offered $5.13 to men but only $4.31 to women. It seems that women were seen as softies who were willing to settle for less — and the discrimination was worse coming from the women themselves.</p> <p class="p1">Another economic test involved a game in which players would fare best collectively if they cooperated, and yet individuals had an incentive to act more opportunistically for a higher payoff. The laboratory result was that women were more likely to start off by cooperating, but then would learn through bitter experience that they’d be taken advantage of if they continued to do so. By the time this game was played over multiple rounds, the initially cooperative behavior of the women <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268199000384">converged into the more opportunistic behavior</a> of the men, but women’s initial reluctance to use cutthroat strategies still brought them losses.</p> <p class="p1"><a href="http://bit.ly/1wgs2WO">In another setting</a>, women seemed quite willing to compete against other women but much less willing to compete against men. And in yet another study, <a href="http://www.people.hbs.edu/kmcginn/PDFs/Publishedarticles/2005-Constraints%20and%20Triggers-Bowles%20Babcock%20McGinn.pdf">women negotiated harder</a> when they were working on behalf of others rather than for themselves, which implied a reluctance to push their own interests.</p> <p class="p1">In sum, these research results suggest that women are perceived as easier to take advantage of in a variety of economic settings. That’s the bad news, and it comes from measuring a difference in gender behavior at a specific point in time.</p> <p class="p1">There is greater cause for optimism, however, when we study changes over time. We find the more positive evidence in another new book, “<a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10402.html">The Silent Sex: Gender, Deliberation and Institutions</a>” (Princeton University Press, 2014) by Christopher F. Karpowitz, professor of political science at Brigham Young University, and Tali Mendelberg, professor of politics at Princeton.</p> <p class="p1">Drawing upon data from politics, business meetings and behavior in the corporate boardroom, they portray a society where women participate less in many public settings, especially those in which real power is exercised. This links up with the experimental results described in Mr. Eswaran’s book, because an underparticipating group that doesn’t resist discrimination is more likely to suffer.</p> <p class="p1">This sounds gloomy so far. But the authors show that once women achieve a critical mass in a particular area, their participation grows rapidly, at least after basic norms of inclusion have been established.</p> <p class="p1">In fact, the general method of economics provides foundations for some feminist views. First, economics emphasizes that incentives matter and that incentives can be changed. These are common themes underlying feminist thought, which stresses how a fairer social environment can give people greater reason to choose better behavior.</p> <p class="p1">Second, the long-term response to a change in incentives is often much greater and more important than the short-term response. For instance, Mr. Karpowitz and Ms. Mendelberg show that, over time, men behave in a less stereotypically male way when more women are participating in an organization or an activity.</p> <p class="p1">As a former chess player, I am struck by the growing achievements of women in this great game — one in which men were once said to have an overwhelming intrinsic advantage. (Among the unproven contentions was that men were better at pattern recognition.) Although women were never barred from touching the chess pieces, strong female players were few in number.</p> <p class="p1">These days, many more women play very well, and the gap between the top men and women in the game is narrowing. <a href="http://skepchick.org/2014/04/guest-post-gender-inequality-in-chess/">The main driver of the change</a> appears to be that more and more women are playing chess, creating a cycle of positive reinforcement that encourages ever more women to excel. We’ve seen a similar dynamic in the workplace, as more women have made great strides in the areas of law, medicine and academia. And this process may spread to other sectors of the economy as well, such as technology industries.</p> <p class="p1">This longer-term, optimistic perspective has deep roots in economics, and was articulated eloquently in “<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/27083">The Subjection of Women</a>,” John Stuart Mill’s 19th-century essay. Mill said men and women were indeed different, but he saw the achievements of women as dependent on incentives and the work environment, which he thought could be improved beyond what most people in his day — and perhaps ours, too — could easily imagine. For all the sexist behavior we economists measure in the lab, the research around the bigger picture is supporting Mill’s optimism about a better world to come.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/why-economic-gender-gap-will-eventually-close Mon, 15 Sep 2014 11:04:12 -0400 The War on Vertical Integration in the Digital Economy http://mercatus.org/publication/war-vertical-integration-digital-economy <h5> Publication </h5> <p><iframe style="border: 1px solid #CCC; border-width: 1px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%;" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" frameborder="0" height="355" width="425" src="//www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/15232018"> </iframe></p><p>This presentation was delivered before the Southern Economic Association on November 16, 2012. Examines concerns about vertical integration in the tech economy and specifically addresses regulatory proposals set forth by Tim Wu (arguing for a "separations principle" for the tech economy) &amp; Jonathan ZIttrain (arguing for "API neutrality" for social media and digital platforms. This presentation is based on two papers published by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University: “Uncreative Destruction: The Misguided War on Vertical Integration in the Information Economy” &amp; “The Perils of Classifying Social Media Platforms as Public Utilities."</p> http://mercatus.org/publication/war-vertical-integration-digital-economy Fri, 12 Sep 2014 17:03:38 -0400 The Challenge of Benefit-Cost Analysis As Applied to Online Safety & Digital Privacy http://mercatus.org/publication/challenge-benefit-cost-analysis-applied-online-safety-digital-privacy <h5> Publication </h5> <p><iframe src="//www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/39018575" width="425" height="355" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border: 1px solid #CCC; border-width: 1px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%;"> </iframe></p><p class="p1">"The Challenge of Benefit-Cost Analysis As Applied to Online Safety &amp; Digital Privacy." A slide show by Adam Thierer presented on January 17, 2012 before George Mason University Law &amp; Economics Center conference on Privacy, Regulation, &amp; Antitrust.</p> http://mercatus.org/publication/challenge-benefit-cost-analysis-applied-online-safety-digital-privacy Fri, 12 Sep 2014 16:59:15 -0400 Internet of Things & Wearable Technology: Unlocking the Next Wave of Data-Driven Innovation http://mercatus.org/publication/internet-things-wearable-technology-unlocking-next-wave-data-driven-innovation <h5> Publication </h5> <p><iframe src="//www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/39018957" width="427" height="356" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border: 1px solid #CCC; border-width: 1px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%;"> </iframe></p> <p class="p1">"Internet of Things &amp; Wearable Technology: Unlocking the Next Wave of Data-Driven Innovation." A presentation by Adam Thierer made on September 11, 2014 at AEI-FCC Conference on "Regulating the Evolving Broadband Ecosystem."</p> http://mercatus.org/publication/internet-things-wearable-technology-unlocking-next-wave-data-driven-innovation Fri, 12 Sep 2014 17:05:00 -0400 The Debt Deniers Who Threaten America’s Future http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/debt-deniers-who-threaten-america-s-future <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">There is no shortage of both real and imagined crises vying for the headlines these days. Left relatively unchallenged, largely ignored, or often denied by Washington and the media, however, is one of the gravest internal, self-made threats to our economy: the crisis of government debt. Most economists agree that the United States federal debt poses a real and serious problem for our future, but for the debt deniers, such warnings fall on deaf ears.</p> <p class="p1">As the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report notes, even with the recent—and temporary—decline in budget deficits, government debt continues surging to historic levels. In 2007, for example, debt owed to outside investors (called “debt held by the public”) equaled about 35 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Today this debt level is 74 percent—or nearly three-quarters the size of our entire economy—and is projected to grow larger from there.</p> <p class="p1">Yet even this is optimistic. It assumes Congress will maintain ambitious spending controls currently written in law, such as tight restraints on Medicare spending imposed by the Affordable Care Act. If Congress fails on even some of its savings promises, according to CBO estimates, debt could explode to twice the size of the entire economy in 25 years.</p> <p class="p1">Even President Obama’s 2010 bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform acknowledged the gravity of the problem, warning: “America’s long-term fiscal gap is unsustainable and, if left unchecked, will see our children and grandchildren living in a poorer, weaker nation.”</p> <p class="p1">The Commission recommended that we sharply reduce tax rates (we haven’t), contain healthcare costs (we haven’t) and make Social Security solvent (we haven’t). In fact, some call for spending <i>more</i> on infrastructure, raising Social Security benefits, and boosting the prices consumers must pay for extensive and onerous regulations.</p> <p class="p1">Indeed, where Congress fails to pass desired spending bills; instead, it often accomplishes goals by passing regulations to control banking, health care, energy and the environment that raise prices for consumers in a still-suffering economy.</p> <p class="p1">We now have over one million regulatory requirements, and <a href="http://regdata.org/index.php?type=regulatory_restrictions&amp;regulator%5b%5d=0"><b>we are adding about 21,000 each year</b></a>. Far too often these regulations are passed without any evidence that they will accomplish anything and, in fact, may make matters worse with unintended consequences. Paying for them is no different from taxation except that the taxes are hidden and often regressive.</p> <p class="p1">Just how deep in debt are we? The nation today has a gross debt level (total deficits minus total payments out of surplus) in excess of $17 trillion and an astonishing gross debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 100 percent.</p> <p class="p1">There are lots of models to project the growth in the debt, but none of them projects a decline. If you add up all of our IOUs and liabilities, as economist <a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/assessing-fiscal-sustainability"><b>Laurence Kotlikoff’s recent research reveals</b></a>, our true fiscal gap exceeds a jaw-dropping $205 trillion. That’s more than $650,000 of debt for every American alive today. Much of this unseen debt lies in commitments the federal government made to seniors—such as health care and retirement benefits—but for which it has no plan to finance.</p> <p class="p1">Some debt deniers claim we can tax the rich to get out of debt. This is also wholly unrealistic. America’s rich simply aren’t rich enough to pay our massive debts. Economist <a href="http://mercatus.org/antony-davies"><b>Antony Davies</b></a><b> </b>points out that if we were to impose an effective tax rate of 88 percent on the top five percent of U.S. income earners, we could just barely balance the budget for <i>one year</i>. When France tried to pay off its national debt by imposing massive taxes on its richest countrymen, those citizens revolted by threatening to leave the country and take their riches with them.</p> <p class="p1">Rising debt levels threaten to drown our communities. States and localities that depend on the federal government during fiscal emergencies can no longer do so. But the debt deniers continue to argue that this spending is good for the economy and that every dollar the government spends “multiplies” into more wealth for the economy. They call it “investing.” Considering our fiscal and economic situation, it’s more accurate to call it “profligacy.” Ask any family how building up huge debts by spending more than they make is likely to work out for them.</p> <p class="p1">Economists cannot pinpoint when the debt-to-GDP ratio will make borrowing impossible and <a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/united-states-debt-crisis-far-solved"><b>force the United States into default</b></a>, like Greece. However, each day that we ignore the debt, our risk of drowning in it becomes more likely. It is time for the debt deniers to face facts so we can work together to solve this problem—before it’s too late.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/debt-deniers-who-threaten-america-s-future Fri, 12 Sep 2014 15:14:28 -0400 Todd Zywicki Discusses, "Consumer Credit in the American Economy" on Wall Street Journal Opinion http://mercatus.org/video/todd-zywicki-discusses-consumer-credit-american-economy-wall-street-journal-opinion <h5> Video </h5> <iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/75PRVjAGTmo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <p>Todd Zywicki Discusses, "Consumer Credit in the American Economy" on Wall Street Journal Opinion&nbsp;</p><div class="field field-type-text field-field-embed-code"> <div class="field-label">Embed Code:&nbsp;</div> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> &lt;iframe width=&quot;640&quot; height=&quot;360&quot; src=&quot;//www.youtube.com/embed/75PRVjAGTmo&quot; frameborder=&quot;0&quot; allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; </div> </div> </div> http://mercatus.org/video/todd-zywicki-discusses-consumer-credit-american-economy-wall-street-journal-opinion Fri, 12 Sep 2014 15:25:56 -0400 Still Free to Choose in Hong Kong http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/still-free-choose-hong-kong <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">Thirty-five years ago, Rose and Milton Friedman traveled to Hong Kong to film some segments of their 10-part PBS series “Free To Choose.” The reason is that Hong Kong had then what it still has today: the world's freest economy. It's an economy based on secure private property rights, low taxes, an independent and honest judiciary, free trade and few government regulations.</p> <p class="p2">The Friedmans correctly used Hong Kong as an example of the beneficial power of individual freedom. Hong Kong has no natural resources to speak of except its large harbor. And that harbor, combined with freedom and a robust bourgeois culture, has made Hong Kong one of the wealthiest places on the planet. It's a place where free trade and voluntary market exchanges reign.</p> <p class="p2">This economic freedom has raised Hong Kong's annual per capita income today to equality with that of the United States. At about $53,000 (U.S.), that income per person is nearly 50 percent higher than in France. When the Friedmans were in Hong Kong in 1979, France's per capita income was 30 percent <i>higher</i> than Hong Kong's. Yet as the Friedmans explained, Hong Kong's economy was expanding impressively. France's was not.</p> <p class="p2">Over the past 35 years, the French have continued to embrace heavy state involvement in the economy while the people of Hong Kong have continued to rely upon free markets.</p> <p class="p2">Hong Kong's success disproves many tenets that most intellectuals — including many of my fellow economists — believe to be true about economic development.</p> <p class="p2">Hong Kong received almost no foreign aid, so such assistance doesn't explain Hong Kong's success. Nor does lack of population pressure. With 6,650 persons per square kilometer, Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated places on Earth.</p> <p class="p2">And, of course, being a thoroughly free economy, Hong Kong's development is not the result of its government protecting “strategic” industries from foreign competition. No such protection occurred. Instead, Hong Kong's people have long been, as they remain to this day, free to spend their money as they choose.</p> <p class="p2">This free trade obliges entrepreneurs and businesses in Hong Kong to specialize in producing what they produce best and at lowest cost. This happy outcome is reinforced by the fact that businesses in Hong Kong — knowing that the state does not dispense tariffs and other barriers against foreign competition — waste no time or resources lobbying politicians for such special privileges. Businesses' efforts and inputs are devoted exclusively to building better mousetraps as judged by the only people who matter: consumers.</p> <p class="p2">Of course, as today's protests in Hong Kong reveal, the people there do confront real challenges. The government in Beijing — in “kinda, sorta” control of Hong Kong since 1997 — fears especially the civil and press freedoms long enjoyed by the people of Hong Kong.</p> <p class="p2">Let's hope the democracy movement in Hong Kong succeeds in preventing Beijing from suppressing those freedoms. But let's also hope the people of Hong Kong never come to mistake democracy for freedom. As Hong Kong's own history proves, true freedom involves far more than the privilege of voting in political elections.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/still-free-choose-hong-kong Thu, 11 Sep 2014 12:05:07 -0400 Disclosure of Consumer Complaint Narrative Data http://mercatus.org/publication/disclosure-consumer-complaint-narrative-data <h5> Publication </h5> <p class="p1">Dear Ms. Jackson,</p> <p class="p2">We appreciate the opportunity to comment on the proposed policy statement regarding the Disclosure of Consumer Complaint Narrative Data issued by the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (the Bureau).<sup>1</sup> The Mercatus Center at George Mason University is dedicated to bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems and advancing knowledge about the effects of regulation on society. This comment does not represent the views of any particular affected party or special interest group but is designed to assist the Bureau as it considers expanding the consumer complaint database to include consumer narratives.</p> <p class="p4">INTRODUCTION</p> <p class="p5">In its current consumer complaint program, the Bureau invites consumers who “have an issue with a financial product or service” to make complaints.<sup>2</sup> The Bureau forwards these complaints to the relevant companies and solicits a response. Mortgages, auto loans, student loans, bank accounts, virtual currencies, and credit cards are among the products and services about which people can submit complaints. The Bureau publishes the complaints in a publicly accessible consumer complaint database. Other than verifying that the customer has a relationship with the company that is the subject of the complaint, the Bureau makes no attempt to assess the veracity of the facts, let alone whether the financial institution named in the complaint has violated a law. As the Bureau explains,</p> <p class="p6">We don’t verify all the facts alleged in these complaints but we take steps to confirm a commercial relation- ship between the consumer and company. Complaints are listed here after the company responds or after they have had the complaint for 15 calendar days, whichever comes first.<sup>3</sup></p> <p class="p7">The database currently includes basic information about the complaint and its resolution. The Bureau proposes to expand the existing database to include unverified consumer narratives and company responses. The Bureau will scrub complaints and responses of information that could identify the consumer.</p> <p class="p7">This public interest comment suggests that there is not a market failure that would justify the public database. The comment identifies the costs to the consumers whom the database will mislead; the financial service providers whose reputations the database will tarnish; and the Bureau, which will have to incur great expense to prevent the database from undermining its mission of protecting consumers. The comment also raises concerns about the lack of statutory authority to expand the database and its incompatibility with open government directives.</p><p class="p7"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/Peirce-Soliman-CFPB-Consumer-Complaint-PIC-091014.pdf">Continue reading</a></p> http://mercatus.org/publication/disclosure-consumer-complaint-narrative-data Fri, 12 Sep 2014 10:26:21 -0400 CBO Updates Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 http://mercatus.org/publication/cbo-updates-budget-and-economic-outlook-2014-2024 <h5> Publication </h5> <p class="p1">This week’s charts use data from the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) recently released <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45653">update</a> to its Budget and Economic Outlook to show the trends and components of projected revenue and outlay increases. The charts show that growing entitlement obligations and net interest payments are projected to push outlays (spending) to grow faster than revenues over much of the next decade. This shift will limit Washington’s ability to maintain the level of services Americans are used to—such as in national defense, transportation, and education—while also meeting increasing entitlement and debt obligations.</p> <p class="p1"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C1B-Outlays-Revenues-large.png"><img height="424" width="585" src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C1B-Outlays-Revenues-small_0.png" /></a></p> <p class="p1">The first chart displays historical and projected trends in outlays and revenues from 1974 through 2024. The second and third charts display the components that constitute the increases in revenues and outlays, respectively. The fourth chart displays projected spending for major budget categories over the next decade.</p> <p class="p1">The first chart shows that CBO projects outlays to grow faster than revenues after 2018, which will push projected deficits above 4 percent of GDP by 2022.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p3"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C2-Revenue-Components-large.png"><img height="424" width="585" src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C2-Revenue-Components-small.png" /></a></p> <p class="p1">The second chart displays the breakdown of revenue sources that drive the total increase over the next 10 years. It shows that CBO projects revenues will grow from roughly $3 trillion in 2014 to around $4.9 trillion in 2024, for a total increase in $1.8 trillion. Of this increase, $1.1 trillion, or 60 percent, will come from individual income taxes; $507 billion, or 27 percent, will come from payroll taxes; $176 billion, or 10 percent, will come from corporate income taxes; and the remaining $59 billion, or 3 percent, will come from various other sources such as excise taxes and customs taxes.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p1">But some of these projected revenues could disappear if Congress decides to extend expiring tax subsidies. If extended, these tax provisions, which include expansive accelerated depreciation deductions for corporate and non-corporate businesses, could lower baseline revenues by 0.2 percentage points over the next two years.</p><p class="p1"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C3-Outlay-Components-large.png"><img src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C3-Outlay-Components-small.png" width="585" height="424" /></a></p> <p class="p1">The third chart shows the same component breakdown on the outlay side. It shows that CBO projects three large budget categories—major health care programs (consisting of Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance), Social Security, and net interest payments on the debt—will account for 85 percent of the total increase in outlays from 2014 to 2024.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p1">Total outlays are projected to increase from roughly $3.5 trillion in 2014 to $5.8 trillion in 2024, for a total increase of $2.3 trillion. Major health care programs are projected to grow by $816 billion, which accounts for 32 percent of the total. Social Security spending will grow by $654.9 billion over the next decade, which constitutes 28 percent of the total increase in outlays. Net interest payments on the debt account for 25 percent of the total growth in outlays, growing by $568 billion over the next decade. CBO projects $259.1 billion in spending on all other federal budget items—including infrastructure, defense, social programs, employee pay, and government services—over the next decade, which constitutes a surprisingly small portion (15 percent) of the remaining total increase in outlays.</p> <p class="p1">Barring swift and significant reform to the major health care programs and Social Security obligations that put pressure on the budget, the federal government will find it harder to provide many services and programs in the future.</p> <p class="p5"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C4b-Projected-Spending-large.png"><img height="424" width="585" src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C4b-Projected-Spending-small.png" /></a></p> <p class="p1">The fourth chart displays this trade-off. Major health care programs and Social Security comprise the bulk of projected federal outlays throughout the coming decade. Spending on health care programs will increase by 125 percent, from $861 billion in 2013 to $1.9 trillion in 2024, increasing at an average annual rate of 8 percent. For Social Security, spending is projected to increase by 67 percent by the end of the decade, growing at an average annual rate of 5 percent from $808 trillion in 2013 to roughly $1.4 trillion in 2024.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p1">Discretionary spending, both defense and non-defense, is projected to increase over the next decade by roughly 3 percent. However, some of these projected small increases are dependent on uncertain policy changes, including the implementation of unpopular sequestration cuts. Should these cuts be again postponed, the fiscal situation could change significantly. Spending on other mandatory outlays, including income support programs, veterans’ benefits, and employee pensions, is projected to decrease by around 5 percent over the next decade, from $363 billion in 2013 to $346 billion in 2024.</p> <p class="p1">Spending on net interest payments constitutes the largest single categorical increase. In 2013, interest payments equaled roughly $221 billion. CBO projects that interest payments will steadily grow at an average annual rate of 11 percent to $722 billion by 2024, a 227 percent increase.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p10">These charts show that the federal government will not be able to provide the same level of services without significant reforms to entitlement programs that drive the bulk of spending and compound future interest payments on the federal debt.</p> http://mercatus.org/publication/cbo-updates-budget-and-economic-outlook-2014-2024 Wed, 10 Sep 2014 12:05:45 -0400 Let the Markets Fix the Ratings Agencies http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/let-markets-fix-ratings-agencies <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">Two weeks ago, the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted a <a href="http://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2014/34-72936.pdf"><b>new set</b></a> of credit rating agency regulations. Credit rating agencies are at the top of many financial crisis blame lists because they seemed to blithely give high ratings to all manner of mortgage-backed securities and related products. As is often the case with purported market failures, the government set the stage for failure. Government regulations shaped and molded the credit rating industry, and the SEC's latest set of regulations does more shaping and molding.</p> <p class="p1">For years, regulators forced banks, money-market mutual funds, and others to rely on ratings issued by the few credit rating agencies that enjoyed the SEC's blessing. For example, asset-backed securities were not securities eligible for inclusion in money-market mutual fund portfolios unless they were rated by a government-blessed credit rating agency. Not surprisingly, this led investors to care more about getting the desired credit rating than getting an independent third party's actual assessment of the credit risk.</p> <p class="p1">Dodd-Frank, in a rare flash of rationality, put into motion a plan to remove references to credit ratings from statutes and regulations. Regulators are no longer allowed to mandate reliance on ratings. But Dodd-Frank did not take the necessary next step: It did not get rid of the SEC's system of recognition for credit rating agencies. Credit rating agencies can still sign up to be "nationally recognized statistical rating organizations [NRSRO]." If the SEC approves them, they are subject to an array of rules and an inspection program extensive enough to suggest that the SEC is double-checking all of their work. So even though Dodd-Frank took credit ratings out of statutes and regulations, the government is still implicitly encouraging investors to rely on the work of rating agencies.</p> <p class="p1">We see this "just trust us ‘cause we're on it" message in the SEC's hundreds of pages of newly minted credit rating agency rules. The new rules include detailed requirements related to the internal controls, "training, experience, and competence" of credit analysts, recordkeeping, disclosure, and certifications. Some of these requirements-such as enhanced disclosure about changes in particular credit ratings over time-may make sense. But, taken together, these new rules are costly and generate a lot of paperwork without much promise of delivering ratings of higher quality. Given that the industry is not particularly competitive, investors likely will bear much of the cost of the new rules.</p> <p class="p1">Small credit rating agencies will get stuck in the niceties of ever-thickening compliance manuals as they try to compete with their larger, more established and compliance-savvy rivals. As SEC Commissioner Daniel Gallagher <a href="http://www.sec.gov/News/PublicStmt/Detail/PublicStmt/1370542775101#.VA9x4PmwJaZ"><b>put it</b></a>, "[t]he more burdensome NRSRO status becomes, the greater the chance of smaller NRSROs deregistering and potential new NRSROs eschewing registration altogether." The SEC is offering smaller firms relief from some of the new requirements, but plenty of requirements remain to trip them up.</p> <p class="p1">The compliance cost burdens of rules are daunting, but an even worse problem is that the rulemaking is an enforcement case generator. SEC Chair Mary Jo White, in her <b><a href="http://www.sec.gov/News/PublicStmt/Detail/PublicStmt/1370542763959#.VA9x_fmwJaZ">statement</a>&nbsp;</b>on the latest set of rules, thanked enforcement staffers for their "substantial contributions to this rulemaking." SEC enforcement lawyers do not typically get to write the rules that they will later enforce. They might be tempted to write the rules in a way that generates lots of easy cases. That appears to be just what happened here.</p> <p class="p1">One part of the rule prohibits employees who participate in determining or monitoring credit ratings or developing and approving credit rating methodologies from being "influenced by sales or marketing considerations." Commissioner Michael Piwowar correctly <a href="http://www.sec.gov/News/PublicStmt/Detail/PublicStmt/1370542770943#.VA9yFvmwJaZ"><b>points out</b></a> that "every NRSRO employee, including those involved in ratings determinations, has an interest in the success of the enterprise." Producing effective methodologies and solid ratings is one way to make a credit rating agency grow and attract more business. An aggressive enforcement lawyer does not even have to stretch the language of the rule to argue that an employee working hard to produce high quality ratings was influenced by sales and marketing considerations in exercising such diligence. In Commissioner Gallagher's words, this new prohibition is a dangerous foray by the SEC into the policing of "thoughtcrime."</p> <p class="p1">The desire to get tough on credit rating agencies is certainly understandable, but tightening up the regulatory framework is not the best way to do it. Instead, we need to let the markets punish credit rating agencies that are doing a poor job. Investors are best served by the free flow of information from credit rating agencies and others. Investors can then decide how much credence to give various sources of information. The SEC's attempts to vet certain credit rating agencies' processes, procedures, products, and even thoughts will only lead people to treat information coming out of the SEC's stable of credit rating agencies with more deference than they ought to. And that is what got us into trouble the last time.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/let-markets-fix-ratings-agencies Wed, 10 Sep 2014 11:32:42 -0400 Acknowledge Unseen Victims of Export-Import Bank Deals and Shut it Down http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/acknowledge-unseen-victims-export-import-bank-deals-and-shut-it-down <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">A battle is raging in Washington over the impending expiration of the U.S. Export-Import Bank’s charter. This government bank purports to promote a handful of U.S. exporters by lending cheap, taxpayer-backed loans to foreign and domestic corporations. In the process, Ex-Im Bank puts Florida firms and workers at a disadvantage.</p> <p class="p1">Ex-Im Bank’s corporate beneficiaries say much to defend their government privileges. They argue that the bank promotes small business, improves exports, fills market financing gaps, and supports jobs. Their claims are either misleading or simply wrong — and are tailored to protect the corporatist status quo. Meanwhile, the many unseen victims of Ex-Im Bank subsidies are ignored.</p> <p class="p1">Contrary to lobbyist talking points, the Ex-Im Bank is firmly in the “big business” business. Over a third of its activities benefit one giant company: Boeing. Over 75 percent of the bank’s financing aids 10 giant beneficiaries, such as Caterpillar, Bechtel, and General Electric.</p> <p class="p1">The Ex-Im Bank’s effect on small businesses is negligible. Its records suggest that less than 0.3 percent of small business employees and less than 0.04 percent of small business establishments benefit from the Ex-Im Bank annually.</p> <p class="p1">Florida residents should also be skeptical of lobbyist fear-mongering about the catastrophes that will befall U.S. exports without the bank. More than 98 percent of all U.S. exports occur with no Ex-Im Bank subsidies at all.</p> <p class="p1">Florida fares worse than the national average. From 2007 to 2014, Ex-Im Bank only subsidized 1.76 percent of the value of Florida exports and 1.17 percent of the value of small business exports. Meanwhile, Washington state — home of Boeing — had more than 22 percent of its state exports subsidized at the same time. Ex-Im Bank forces Floridians to bear the risks of Boeing’s private profits.</p> <p class="p1">It is not true that Ex-Im Bank is necessary to fill market financing gaps, either. Recent reports from S&amp;P, Fitch, and Goldman Sachs analyze the impact of shutting down the Ex-Im Bank. They conclude that sufficient private-sector financing exists to adequately finance worthy projects. The only difference is that financial risks would be rightly transferred away from taxpayers and toward the companies that profit from them.</p> <p class="p1">It is also absurd to claim, as Ex-Im Bank supporters do, that multinational corporations such as Boeing simply could not find financing without taxpayer-backed export credits. Rather, Ex-Im Bank beneficiaries such as Boeing simply want to enjoy lower costs by forcing taxpayers to shoulder their risks.</p> <p class="p1">How about Ex-Im Bank’s impact on jobs? The “205,000 jobs” that it claims to have supported last year amount to fewer than 2 percent of all export-related jobs in 2013. This number is likely overstated. The Government Accounting Office sharply criticizes Ex-Im Bank’s job calculation methodology for, among other flaws, failing to assess how many jobs are unaffected or destroyed by the bank’s lending.</p> <p class="p1">It is this unfairness that motivates the movement to end Ex-Im Bank corporatism once and for all.</p> <p class="p1">The Ex-Im Bank places the 99.7 percent of unsubsidized Florida small businesses at a competitive disadvantage. It subsidizes lower competitors’ costs and artificially boosts profits. Unsubsidized firms, meanwhile, find it harder to attract capital and expand their businesses, even if they produce a superior product or service. The subsidized get richer and the unsubsidized get poorer.</p> <p class="p1">Tragically, Ex-Im Bank privileges for the few come at the expense of countless Floridians. Employees of unsubsidized firms may see their hours cut, their salaries stagnate, or even their jobs disappear because their employers cannot compete on a level playing field. Unsubsidized firms lose market share and revenue. Consumers must pay more for subsidized goods. The vast majority of unsubsidized Floridians lose so that a few of them can earn a little more money.</p> <p class="p1">The Export-Import Bank is the epitome of corporatism. It is time to acknowledge the unseen victims of the Ex-Im Bank deals and stand up for them by shutting it down.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/acknowledge-unseen-victims-export-import-bank-deals-and-shut-it-down Wed, 10 Sep 2014 10:59:48 -0400 The True Story of How the Patent Bar Captured a Court and Shrank the Intellectual Commons http://mercatus.org/publication/true-story-how-patent-bar-captured-court-and-shrank-intellectual-commons <h5> Publication </h5> <p class="p1">Libertarians intuitively understand the case for patents: just as other property rights internalize the social benefits of improvements to land, automobile maintenance, or business investment, patents incentivize the creation of new inventions, which might otherwise be undersupplied.</p> <p class="p1">So far, so good. But it is important to recognize that the laws that govern property, intellectual or otherwise, do not arise out of thin air. Rather, our political institutions, with all their virtues and foibles, determine the contours of property—the exact bundle of rights that property holders possess, their extent, and their limitations.</p> <p class="p1">Outlining efficient property laws is not a trivial problem. The optimal contours of property are neither immutable nor knowable <i>a priori</i>. For example, in 1946, the U.S. Supreme Court <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Causby">reversed the age-old common law doctrine</a> that extended real property rights to the heavens without limit. The advent of air travel made such extensive property rights no longer practicable—airlines would have had to cobble together a patchwork of easements, acre by acre, for every corridor through which they flew, and they would have opened themselves up to lawsuits every time their planes deviated from the expected path. The Court rightly abridged property rights in light of these empirical realities.</p> <p class="p1">In defining the limits of patent rights, our political institutions have gotten an analogous question badly wrong. A single, politically captured circuit court with exclusive jurisdiction over patent appeals has consistently expanded the scope of patentable subject matter. This expansion has resulted in an explosion of both patents and patent litigation, with destructive consequences.</p> <p class="p1"><b>Patent Politics without Romance</b></p> <p class="p1">James Buchanan coined the phrase “politics without romance” to define public choice, a research agenda that studies political outcomes in light of the incentives and constraints that politicians, bureaucrats, judges, and voters face. <i>Contra</i> elementary-school civics lessons (to say nothing of the academic literature), many public policies are enacted not in the general interest, but to benefit groups that successfully manipulate the political system. By concentrating benefits and dispersing costs, the few are able to take from the many.</p> <p class="p1">In patent politics, the romance has been gone for at least three decades. Here’s why. In most areas of law, the loser in a federal trial appeals to the circuit court corresponding to the federal judicial district in which the trial was held. But in 1982, at the urging of the patent bar, Congress consolidated appellate review of all patent cases in a newly created Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.</p> <p class="p1">The patent bar had sought this consolidation for some time. As early as 1951, Simon Rifkind, a former federal judge in New York City, <a href="http://digitalcollections.library.cmu.edu/awweb/awarchive?type=file&amp;item=696806">warned in a prescient essay</a> that then-current proposals to create a specialized patent court would lead to “decadence and decay.”</p><p class="p1"><a href="http://www.cato-unbound.org/2014/09/08/eli-dourado/true-story-how-patent-bar-captured-court-shrank-intellectual-commons">Continue reading</a></p> http://mercatus.org/publication/true-story-how-patent-bar-captured-court-and-shrank-intellectual-commons Wed, 10 Sep 2014 10:21:36 -0400 The Right Level of Regulatory Rigor http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/right-level-regulatory-rigor <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">A <a href="http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/expanding_opportunity_in_america.pdf">proposal</a> by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to require federal agencies to assess the effects of regulations on the poor continues to generate considerable debate — a debate, which is long overdue.</p> <p class="p1">Benefit-cost analysis of regulations, as currently practiced by federal agencies, usually just compares total benefits with total costs. But those costs and benefits tend to fall on different people. In order to judge whether or not a regulation is regressive, the analysis must look at both the benefits and costs for each group affected by a regulation. Regulations whose costs to the poor outweigh the benefits to the poor are regressive. And if lifting the poor out of poverty is a priority, regulations with regressive effects ought to face higher hurdles.</p> <p class="p1">Regulations tend to increase prices of goods and services. In this way, regulations act like a regressive sales tax. Because the poor have lower incomes than the rich, these price increases consume a larger share of a poor person’s income than a rich person’s income.</p><p class="p1"><a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2014/09/08/paul-ryan-plan-for-analyzing-regressive-regulations-is-the-right-one">Continue reading</a></p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/right-level-regulatory-rigor Wed, 10 Sep 2014 11:06:18 -0400 Dr. Yandle’s Quarterly Economic Update: September 2014 http://mercatus.org/events/dr-yandle-s-quarterly-economic-update-september-2014 <h5> Events </h5> <p class="p1">What do GDP reports really tell us? What does economic freedom have to do with job growth?</p> <p class="p1">For answers to these questions and more, the Mercatus Center at George Mason University invites you to join us for an exploration of the economic situation as Dr. Bruce Yandle presents his quarterly economic commentary.</p> <p class="p1">This presentation will:</p> <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Examine GDP data and the implications for the years ahead;</li> <li class="li1">Review economic indicators;</li> <li class="li1">Look at unemployment numbers across the fifty states; and</li> <li class="li1">Discuss US manufacturing performance.</li> </ul> <p class="p1">Space is limited. Please register online for this event.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p1">This event is free and open to all congressional and federal agency staff. This event is not open to the general public. Food will be provided. Due to space constraints, please no interns. <i>Questions? Please contact Caitlyn Van Orden, Event Coordinator, at </i><a href="mailto:cvanorden@mercatus.gmu.edu"><i>cvanorden@mercatus.gmu.edu</i></a><i> or (703) 993-4925.</i>&nbsp;</p> http://mercatus.org/events/dr-yandle-s-quarterly-economic-update-september-2014 Wed, 10 Sep 2014 10:41:11 -0400 Keith Hall Reacts to the August Jobs Report http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/keith-hall-reacts-august-jobs-report <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">Keith Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and former BLS Commissioner, responded to today’s jobs report:</p> <p class="p1">“While not a step backwards, today’s report is the weakest of 2014. An unfortunate side effect of this kind of slowdown is that it may continue to discourage people from looking for work at a time when participation in the labor force remains below pre-recession levels. Until we have stronger participation in the workforce, it seems unlikely we will see a full economic recovery.</p> <p class="p1">“One bit of good news in this report is the slight increase in construction jobs, which is an encouraging sign of people planning for the future. The next few reports will be critical to watch and see if this report is just a blip in an otherwise strong year, or the beginning of a downward trend.”</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/keith-hall-reacts-august-jobs-report Tue, 09 Sep 2014 12:53:35 -0400 Update: Social Security Remains on an Unsustainable Path http://mercatus.org/publication/update-social-security-remains-unsustainable-path <h5> Publication </h5> <p class="p1">This week's charts use new data from the recently released <a href="http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/2014/index.html">2014 Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trustees Report</a> to update a previous Mercatus Center chart series presenting <a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/social-security-and-medicare-programs-remain-unsustainable-paths">projected cash flows</a> and <a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/how-many-workers-support-one-social-security-retiree">worker-to-beneficiary ratios</a> for Social Security programs. As these charts show, the outlook for Social Security remains bleak. The system has run cash deficits for several years now and is projected to remain in the red for the foreseeable future. As the ratio of retirees to workers continues to increase and the probability that the program will be sustainable in the future continues to decrease, the need for reform becomes pressing.</p> <p class="p2"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C1-Balance-vero-large.jpg"><img height="425" width="585" src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C1-Balance-vero-small.jpg" /></a></p> <p class="p2">The first chart compares the trust fund’s historical balances since 1985 with annual balances projected under the trustees’ most realistic scenario, called “intermediate assumption” in the report, through 2023. The second chart displays the long-term trust fund balances projected under this realistic scenario, as well as high-cost and low-cost alternative assumptions through 2090. The final chart compares the historical worker-to-beneficiary Social Security ratios to the anticipated number of workers needed to support one Social Security retiree through 2090.</p> <p class="p2">Since 2010, the Social Security program has been running a permanent cash-flow deficit, as the first chart shows. This means that the taxes collected during the year for the program fall short of what is needed to cover the benefits paid out to retirees. The program draws from the Social Security trust fund to fill the gap (first using the interest, then the principal) to maintain promised level of benefits to retirees. When this option is also insufficient, the US Treasury will have to start borrowing to pay out benefits.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p2">The OASDI trustees report contains three projections of Social Security deficits based on different methodological assumptions. The more realistic, or “intermediate,” scenario serves as a baseline that “reflect[s] the Trustees’ best estimates of future experience[s]” with key demographic, economic, and programmatic factors. The high-cost and low-cost scenarios provide brackets for a range of alternative experiences.</p> <p class="p4"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C2-Deficits-vero-large.jpg"><img src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C2-Deficits-vero-small.jpg" width="585" height="425" /></a></p> <p class="p2">The second chart displays the intermediate projections along with the low-cost and high-cost projections through 2090. The intermediate scenario, which reflects the trustees’ most realistic expectations for the future, tracks closely with the high-cost scenario, eventually exceeding the high-cost deficits by 2090. The optimistic low-cost scenario projects moderate deficits of less than $250 billion until eventually returning to solvency by 2080. Unfortunately, the low-cost scenario is highly unlikely. The true path of Social Security deficits will most likely resemble the intermediate and high-cost scenarios.&nbsp;</p><p class="p2"><a href="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C3-Workers-Beneficiary-large.jpg"><img height="425" width="585" src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/C3-Workers-Beneficiary-small.jpg" /></a></p> <p class="p2">The third chart displays the number of workers it took to support one Social Security retiree for selected years since 1945, along with the intermediate projections for future dates. The burden of funding Social Security benefits has rested on fewer and fewer shoulders as the program has matured. In the early stages of the program, many paid in and few received benefits, and the revenue collected greatly exceeded the benefits being paid out. The program’s apparent advantage was misleading. Between 1945 and 1970, the decline in worker-to-beneficiary ratios went from 41 to four workers per beneficiary.</p> <p class="p2">The Social Security program matured in the 1960s, when Americans were consistently having fewer children and living longer than previous generations. As these trends have continued, today there are just 2.8 workers per retiree—and this amount is expected to drop to 2.1 workers per retiree by 2050.</p> <p class="p2">The program was stable when there were more than three workers per beneficiary. However, future projections indicate that the ratio could continue to fall to less than one worker per beneficiary, at which point the program in its current structure becomes financially unsustainable.&nbsp;</p> <p class="p2">The OASDI trustees predict that the Social Security trust fund asset reserves will become depleted in 2033 and that the OASI Trust Fund will become insolvent in 2034. The longer that we wait to enact needed reforms to these entitlement programs, the more painful the adjustment needed in the future.&nbsp;</p> http://mercatus.org/publication/update-social-security-remains-unsustainable-path Tue, 09 Sep 2014 13:12:07 -0400 Export-Import Bank Hurts U.S. Companies http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/export-import-bank-hurts-us-companies <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">Americans agree that our federal government shouldn’t extend cheap, taxpayer-backed loans to wealthy corporations at the expense of U.S. jobs and competitiveness.</p> <p class="p1">Yet that’s exactly what the Export-Import Bank of the United States does.</p> <p class="p1">Consider this: In November of 2013, the Ex-Im Bank “facilitated” the sale of Caterpillar equipment to an Australian mining group, Hancock Prospecting, for an iron-ore project called Roy Hill. Ex-Im Bank advocates claim the sale will create jobs while promoting U.S. exports.</p> <p class="p1">But this is only a win for the tiny percent of businesses that benefit from Ex-Im Bank subsidies. While the sale may be good for giant manufacturer Caterpillar, it will end up harming other iron ore mining companies in the United States.</p> <p class="p1">This impacts Michigan in particular. The Great Lakes State’s many iron ore companies, like Cliffs Natural Resources, are placed at a competitive disadvantage when its own government subsidizes the competition.</p> <p class="p1">This is how it works: When Hancock Prospecting — which happens to be owned by Australia’s wealthiest person, heiress Gina Reinhart — receives $694 million in federal government-backed export financing for its mine, it receives an incredible competitive edge over Michigan mining companies like Cliffs.</p> <p class="p1">Hancock has a strong incentive to accept such financing despite the fact that it has ample private alternatives. Few companies would turn down a loan that offers interest rates half of the market norm.</p> <p class="p1">Hancock’s down payment will be only a fraction of what unsubsidized companies must pay.</p> <p class="p1">In addition, if things go south, U.S. taxpayers will reimburse the lenders for the unpaid loan, not the Australian heiress.</p> <p class="p1">Hancock enjoys privatized profits while American taxpayers shoulder the socialized burden of risk.</p> <p class="p1">This frees up money for Hancock to expand production, lower prices, or increase hiring.</p> <p class="p1">Unsubsidized U.S. companies like Cliffs, however, suffer. They must cut back production, lower wages, or even go out of business.</p> <p class="p1">This comes at the expense of American jobs. Estimates of the aircraft industry, which constitutes the largest portion of Ex-Im Bank’s portfolio, show that the bank’s subsidies foreign airlines destroyed roughly 7,500 airline jobs in America.</p> <p class="p1">When Ex-Im Bank subsidizes the competition, it threatens Michigan jobs. Workers in unsubsidized firms may see their hours cut, their wages stagnate, or their jobs disappear because their employers simply cannot compete against heavily subsidized foreign mines.</p> <p class="p1">Cliffs Natural Resources appealed to Ex-Im Bank to deny the loan, stating that it would harm Michigan jobs and firms. The bank ignored those concerns.</p> <p class="p1">Caterpillar undoubtedly enjoys Ex-Im Bank subsidies. However, the Michigan mining employees whose livelihoods are threatened by this deal should not matter less than Caterpillar employees just because they don’t have as many friends in Washington. This story is unfortunately one that is often repeated in Ex-Im Bank deals.</p> <p class="p1">Well-paid lobbyists want to hide the disadvantage that Ex-Im Bank imposes on Michigan firms like Cliffs because the companies that they represent benefit handsomely from the status quo. They claim that without the Ex-Im Bank, “billions of dollars in U.S. exports and tens of thousands of American jobs will be put at risk.”</p> <p class="p1">This is just fear-mongering. The bank subsidizes 1.6 percent of U.S. exports each year. The same is true in Michigan: From 2007 to 2014, less than 2.55 percent of all state exports and 0.33 percent of small business exports were backed by Ex-Im Bank.</p> <p class="p1">The other 98.4 percent of unsubsidized U.S. exports are just fine without the bank. Many unsubsidized firms may export more without Ex-Im Bank if they are placed back on a level playing field. The other 1.6 percent of subsidized exports will find financing at normal market rates. The richest woman in Australia does not need the Ex-Im Bank to access capital.</p> <p class="p1">The Export-Import Bank is not so much “pro-jobs” as it is “pro-jobs for companies that have friends in Washington.” Tragically, Ex-Im Bank is too often a jobs killer for unsubsidized firms. Americans know that unsubsidized workers and firms do not matter less because they lack political connections. It is time to end the corporatism.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/export-import-bank-hurts-us-companies Thu, 04 Sep 2014 11:09:37 -0400 Export-Import Bank Exists For Big Business http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/export-import-bank-exists-big-business <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">When powerful special interests get their way, the government grows to flex its power on behalf of its favorite cronies.</p> <p class="p1">Business lobbyists try to mislead Americans into supporting corporate welfare by presenting plum programs as beneficial to the public welfare. They spin promises of job creation, small business support and economic growth.</p> <p class="p1">But Americans shouldn't fall for these illusions. To see who benefits from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and the potential reauthorization of its charter, all you need to do is follow the money.</p> <p class="p1">Contrary to the pro-Ex-Im Bank crowd's message, economists have repeatedly shown that export subsidies never boost the net level of exports. Rather, these subsidies redistribute sales away from unsubsidized exporters and toward those who curry favor with the right bureaucrats.</p> <p class="p1">In the case of Ex-Im Bank, the winners are obvious. While the bank only backs 1.9 percent of all U.S. exports, a stunning 76 percent of Ex-Im Bank's portfolio directly benefits fewer than 10 massive multinational corporations, including Boeing, General Electric and Caterpillar. Indeed, the bank earned its D.C. nickname: "Boeing's Bank."</p> <p class="p1">But these companies, the Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers try to defend the subsidies. They threaten that if Uncle Sam stops subsidizing profits, American jobs will be lost, small businesses will tank and American exports will come to a grinding halt.</p> <p class="p1">This is nonsense. Let's look at the data:</p> <p class="p1">Corporate Ex-Im Bank supporters warn that millions of American jobs could be destroyed. The bank itself claims to have supported 1.2 million jobs over the past five years. Yet it's worth noting that the federal government's nonpartisan Government Accountability Office disputes this figure and the sloppy methodology that produced it.</p> <p class="p1">But even if one assumes that Ex-Im Bank's questionable figure is accurate, this only amounts to some 2 percent of all export-related employment and a measly 0.01 percent of all U.S. jobs. Most of these jobs come from the largest corporate beneficiaries like Boeing and Caterpillar.</p> <p class="p1">Corporate Ex-Im Bank supporters also warn that small business will be devastated without the bank's assistance. Some advocates claim that 90 percent of all Ex-Im Bank transactions go to small businesses -- but this is misleading.</p> <p class="p1">Less than 20 percent of all Ex-Im Bank funding goes to "small" business, which the bank defines much more broadly than all other government bodies. To Ex-Im Bank, a company with 1,500 employees and $21 million annual revenues is still considered "small."</p> <p class="p1">The more relevant comparison is how many small businesses in the broader economy benefit from Ex-Im Bank. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Ex-Im Bank backs less than 0.3 percent of all small business jobs and less than 0.04 percent of all small business establishments.</p> <p class="p1">Lobbyists try to conceal the facts, but there is no hiding the truth: The business of Ex-Im Bank is big business.</p> <p class="p1">Finally, Ex-Im Bank defenders claim that it is necessary to promote U.S. competitiveness. They would be more honest to say that the bank is necessary to promote the profits of a handful of well-connected corporations.</p> <p class="p1">Ex-Im Bank manipulates credit markets to tilt the playing field in the favor of a privileged few businesses. As these favored businesses attract more customers -- thanks in part to their lower costs -- unsubsidized firms therefore find it harder to access capital, expand sales, and maintain employment.</p> <p class="p1">The justifications for extending the Export-Import Bank's charter keep changing, but the winners and losers remain the same. Ex-Im Bank is a corporate welfare program that benefits manufacturing conglomerates involved with fewer than two percent of exports at the cost of everyone involved with the other 98 percent.</p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/export-import-bank-exists-big-business Thu, 04 Sep 2014 11:03:30 -0400 Back to School on Sales Tax Holidays http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/back-school-sales-tax-holidays <h5> Expert Commentary </h5> <p class="p1">With summer nearly over, and school years starting again across the county, many states are declaring this time of year a holiday season of sorts: a <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/08/15/340361368/back-to-school-shoppers-hunting-for-tax-breaks-and-bargains">“tax holiday”</a> season. This year, <a href="http://www.salestaxinstitute.com/resources/sales-tax-holidays">17 states</a> will create tax-free holidays to exempt many back-to-school items from state <a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/sales-taxes-and-exemptions">sales tax</a>.</p> <p class="p1">The history behind these tax holidays is one of politically expedient attempts to <a href="http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/SR222_0.pdf">compete for cross-border shopping</a> and <a href="http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/SR222_0.pdf">spur economic activity</a>. New York began this trend in 1997 to compete with New Jersey’s lower tax rates on clothing. Other states then followed suit. In 2005, Massachusetts adopted its own sales tax holiday to compete with tax-free New Hampshire.</p> <p class="p1">In both of these cases, however, the states ultimately abandoned their initial holidays, realizing that what is often politically expedient is rarely good policy. In New York, for example, <a href="http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/SR222_0.pdf">a study by the New York State Department of Taxation found</a> it wasn’t increasing sales. Instead, shoppers were simply timing their purchases with the state’s holiday, making purchases in New York that they would have made anyway.</p><p class="p1"><a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2014/09/02/back-to-school-sales-tax-holidays-are-bad-policy">Continue reading</a></p> http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/back-school-sales-tax-holidays Thu, 04 Sep 2014 10:24:16 -0400