Keith Hall

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Keith Hall

  • Senior Research Fellow

Keith Hall is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.  From 2008 until 2012 he served as the thirteenth Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  In this role, he headed the principal fact-finding agency in the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics.  The BLS is an independent national statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor.

Dr. Hall’s research interests include labor markets, labor market policy, and economic data.

From 2005 to 2008, Dr. Hall served as Chief Economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisers where he analyzed a broad range of fiscal, regulatory and macroeconomic policies and directed a team that monitored the state of the economy and developed economic forecasts.  Prior to that, he was Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Commerce where he provided technical advice regarding the scope, emphasis, and state of the economic and statistical activities of the Bureau of Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, served as a special advisor to the Secretary of Commerce, and regularly conducted/supervised research projects on a wide range of economic and policy issues.  Dr. Hall also spent ten years at the U.S. International Trade Commission where, among other things, he conducted and led independent studies related to international trade and trade policy.  He has been on full time faculty in the Economic Departments at the Universities of Arkansas and Missouri, and has published a number of papers on international trade and international trade policy.

 Dr. Hall received his B.A. degree from the University of Virginia and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Purdue University.

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Working Papers

The Employment Costs of Regulation

Keith Hall | Mar 19, 2013
Concern over the impact of regulations on jobs and job growth is not new, but the efforts of federal agencies to forecast the likely impact of regulatory changes have never focused effectively on labor market impacts.

Charts

The Slow Recovery's Impact on Families

Veronique de Rugy, Keith Hall | May 07, 2013
Unsurprisingly, the slow recovery has been particularly hard on families. New data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that 8.4 million families had at least one unemployed member. That makes the family unemployment rate 10.5 percent, well above the average national unemployment rate of 8.1 percent in 2012. Some 20 percent of families had no one working in 2012, a number that includes both the unemployed and looking for work and the jobless and not looking for work. The statistics are grim when we look at families with children under 18 years old, where 12.2 percent have no one working.

The Elusive Recovery

Veronique de Rugy, Keith Hall | Feb 05, 2013
Once the recession ended, we should have seen economic growth continue to accelerate after the 2.4 percent growth in 2010. Instead, economic output has been more sluggish after each year since 2010. These charts, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), clearly show that we are not really in an economic recovery.

Shrinking Labor Force Participation Responsible for Most of the Drop in the Unemployment Rate

Veronique de Rugy, Keith Hall | Dec 11, 2012
The minor improvement in the unemployment rate, however, is entirely due to shrinking labor-force participation. The labor-force disagreement has lowered the participation rate by 0.4 percentage point this year alone and affects pretty much every category of worker with the exception of 55 and older. So, while we have had some encouraging hiring this year, this drop in labor-force participation exaggerates the progress shown in the drop in unemployment rate.

The Real Picture of Job Market Recovery

Keith Hall | Nov 02, 2012
The jobs report this morning suggests a clear trend of very modest growth in the U.S. labor market. This month’s gain of 171,000 jobs means we have now averaged 173,000 jobs per month since July. While this is above the 130,000 jobs per month needed to accommodate the growing population, it isn’t enough to indicate that the economy is in full recovery. At this rate of job growth, it will take more than a decade to get back to pre-recession employment levels.

Third-Quarter Increase in GDP Growth Came From the Biggest Increase in Government Spending in Over Two Years

Veronique de Rugy, Keith Hall | Oct 26, 2012
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy grew by a modest 2 percent in the third quarter of 2012. While this was stronger growth than the preceding quarter, all of the increase in GDP growth came from the biggest increase in federal government spending in over two years.

State-Level Job Loss Since the Start of the Recession

Keith Hall | Oct 04, 2012
Since the end of 2009, we’ve averaged about 120,00 jobs per month. Over the past six months, job growth has slowed to 97,000 per month.

Update: The Single Most Accurate Indicator of Labor Market Health

Keith Hall | Sep 10, 2012
The release of the June labor market data marks the third anniversary of the official end of the recession in June 2009. Thus, this is a good moment to look at the single best indicator of U.S. labor market health. As is so often the case, it is also one of the simplest: the employment-to-population ratio. In essence, this tells us what share of the working-age population (16-years old and above) has a job. When the ratio goes up, things are getting better. When it doesn’t, the labor market is not recovering.

Policy Briefs

Beyond Unemployment: The Full Labor Market Picture of Ohio

Keith Hall, Robert Greene | May 09, 2013
If ­participation ­in ­the­ labor ­force­ by ­Ohioans ­today ­were ­at ­the ­same ­level­ as­ before ­the recession, ­Ohio’s ­unemployment ­rate ­would­ be­ significantly ­higher. ­Ohio’s ­decline ­in ­labor­ force participation­ has ­particularly ­harmed­ the ­labor ­market­ for­ Ohioans ­34­ and ­younger ­and­ has ­outpaced ­the national­ average. ­To ­improve ­Ohio’s ­labor ­market, ­policymakers­ should ­consider­ reducing ­the ­state’s regulatory ­and ­tax­ burdens, ­which ­may­ be­ hindering ­economic ­recovery­ and­ job­ creation.

Testimony & Comments

Long-Term Unemployment

Keith Hall | Apr 24, 2013
Two significant problems have become evident through this lengthy period of slow job growth. First, there has been an unprecedented disengagement from the labor force with current participation at its lowest level in almost 35 years. This means there are currently 102 million jobless people in the United States, but less than 12 million are still actively looking for work and therefore counted as unemployed. Second, the number of long-term unemployed is at a record high. They currently represent over 4.6 million people, and the long-term unemployment rate (the share of the labor force unemployed for over six months) remains well above historical levels at 3.0 percent.

The Challenges of Producing Economic Data for the 21st Century

Keith Hall | Jun 19, 2012
In his testimony, Keith Hall discusses the economic statistics produced by the federal statistical system. He comments on some of the challenges that the current system is struggling to meet and a handful of specific inadequacies in data coverage.

Addressing Concerns About the Integrity of the U.S. Department of Labor's Jobs Reporting

Keith Hall | Jun 06, 2012
For BLS to effectively disseminate data directly to the public and maintain credibility as an independent, objective provider of data, DOL should not interfere with BLS’ dissemination of economic data through any means.

Media Clippings

Government Drops Insider Trading Probe Of Media Companies, Baffling Investors

Keith Hall | Jan 30, 2013
Outlet: The Huffington Post

Keith Hall Discusses Unemployment on CNN's Gut Check

Keith Hall | Oct 05, 2012
Outlet: CNN

America's Hidden Unemployed: Too Discouraged to Count

Keith Hall | Sep 24, 2012
Outlet: Rueters

US Tightens Security for Economic Data

Keith Hall | Jul 17, 2012
Outlet: The New York Times
More Media Clippings

Expert Commentary

Labor Participation Remains Low Despite Job Gains

By Keith Hall |
May 03, 2013

This year the economy is adding more jobs per month than it did in 2012, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Mercatus Center senior research fellow Keith Hall—a former BLS commissioner—said that the labor participation rate is still quite low and the economy is not yet adding enough jobs to stimulate a robust recovery.

Ask the Experts: Unemployment

Need to Know on PBS
By Keith Hall |
May 03, 2013

In this edition of Ask the experts, we’ve consulted two of the nation’s leading economists on the stubborn problem of American unemployment and what fixes we might attempt to lower the rate.

The Truth About Long-Term Unemployment

U.S. News and World Report
By Keith Hall |
Apr 30, 2013

This has been a historically slow economic recovery, and one of the results has been the persistent and unprecedented number of long-term unemployed. As bad as the official data appears, it actually underestimates the problem.

Disappointing Job Gains for March, Little Progress in Economic Recovery

By Keith Hall |
Apr 05, 2013

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today that the economy gained only 88,000 jobs in March 2013, well below expectations and a sign that the economic recovery has a long way to go.
More Expert Commentary