Growth Trends in Revenue Collection Since 1950
Growth Trends in Revenue Collection Since 1950
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Poster-Size Image 1 
Poster-Size Image 2 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that by 2023 the deficit will be roughly $1 trillion and public debt will reach 77 percent of GDP. As dire as that sounds, these projections rely on rosy economic growth assumptions and revenue projections that are unlikely to materialize.
These charts use historical and projected CBO data adjusted for inflation to examine growth trends in revenue collection since 1950.
If current law remains unchanged, the CBO estimates that revenues in 2013 will equal $2.7 trillion or 16.9 percent of GDP—up from 15.8 percent of GDP in 2012 and the highest percentage of GDP estimate since 2008. Tax collection is projected to double from its 2012 levels to reach $4,961 billion by 2023. This is overly optimistic.
The annual projected revenue growth between 2013 and 2023 is 4.5 percent, which is much higher than the historical average of 3.3 percent. In par