Financial Markets

Financial Markets

Research

Bruce Yandle | Dec 01, 2015
Fed uncertainty, the levitated dollar, China’s continuing weak economy, Europe’s mixed bag, and US political crazy season combine to yield a slow but somehow sound winter economy. Let’s take it from the top. The most recent third quarter 2015 GDP growth estimate arrived to the tune of 1.5 percent.
Todd Zywicki | Sep 29, 2015
A new paper for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University reviews the law and economics of consumer debt collection and its regulation and concludes that the CFPB should consider all the potential consequences of new regulation—both intended and unintended—to ensure that it will benefit consumers.
Bruce Yandle | Sep 01, 2015
June’s Economic Situation began with Dorothy, Tin Man, Scarecrow, and Lion searching for the Yellow Brick Road and wondering if it had disappeared. Since then, there’s been a whole lot of shaking going on. In this report, I first take a look back to June and come forward. Then, in the section to follow, I will deal with China, devaluation, and financial market reactions. After that, I cover some specialized topics. Let’s hit the road!
Jason Scott Johnston , Todd Zywicki | Aug 03, 2015
In a new study for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, law professors Jason Scott Johnston and Todd Zywicki provide an overview and critique of the CFPB’s report. The study criticizes the report using primarily evidence supplied by the report itself. The CFPB’s findings show that arbitration is relatively fair and successful at resolving a range of disputes between consumers and providers of consumer financial products, and that regulatory efforts to limit the use of arbitration will likely leave consumers worse off.
Vern McKinley | Jun 18, 2015
The idea that banks are special was most succinctly summarized by Gerald Corrigan more than 30 years ago in an analysis prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where Corrigan was president at the time. With the help of his mentor, then Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, his analysis pondered the characteristics of banks that make them special; justified the provision of a supporting safety net for banks based on financial stability concerns; and detailed the costs and restrictions that banks must subject themselves to. But the years since Corrigan’s analysis have seen two severe financial crises,and as the crisis of 2007–2009 clearly revealed, banks are not special, as the safety net was applied to a wide range of nonbank institutions. The Dodd-Frank Act was intended to cut back on the safety net by giving financial authorities wide discretion, but the right approach to rein in the safety net would be to cut back its beneficiaries…
Jason E. Taylor, Andrea Castillo | Jan 13, 2015
A new study published by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University examines the use of expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate a contracting economy. The study concludes that attempts to use fiscal policy to solve broader economic troubles have failed even by the theory proponents’ own standards. In addition to being poorly timed and targeted, stimulus spending has led to permanent increases in the size and scope of government.

Testimony & Comments

Stephen Matteo Miller | Jan 29, 2016
While higher capital requirements can reduce the likelihood of banking crises, I would like to raise two key issues concerning the proposed policy statement: 1) bank subsidiary capital requirements may be more effective than holding company capital requirements, and 2) the benefit-cost analysis used to analyze the rule could be improved by adding other dimensions to the analysis.
J. W. Verret | Sep 30, 2015
The explosive growth in federally backed loan and guaranty programs has been an appropriate focus of congressional oversight in recent years. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimates the federal government supports over $3 trillion in loans and guarantees. Those loans and guarantees are often shrouded by indirect government support and unreasonable assumptions in government accounting practices. I submit that the Securities Investor Protection Corporation’s (SIPC) provision of securities custody insurance should be an appropriate part of that conversation.
Hester Peirce | Jun 11, 2015
Financial regulation should consist of clear, consistently enforced rules within which customers and financial institutions can freely interact. A well-functioning market enables people who need financing to obtain it efficiently and at a competitive price. Market forces reward financial companies that serve consumers well and discipline firms that fail to provide products and services in a form and at a price that consumers want.
Hester Peirce | May 13, 2015
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act—does not make another crisis less likely. To the contrary, it sets the stage for another, worse crisis in the future. Government regulation—from bank regulation to housing policy to credit rating agency regulation—played a key role in the crisis. These policies shaped market participants’ behavior in destructive ways. Dodd-Frank continues that pattern.
Stephen Matteo Miller | Mar 12, 2015
The Bureau should employ its statutory authority to make exceptions to suspend the credit card database program so that it can inform Congress that the costs of such programs outweigh the benefits.
Hester Peirce, Kristine Johnson | Feb 04, 2015
This comment, which reiterates concerns laid out in the attached opinion piece, does not represent the views of any particular affected party or special interest group but is designed to assist FINRA as it considers implementing the Comprehensive Automated Risk Data System (CARDS).

Research Summaries & Toolkits

Speeches & Presentations

Expert Commentary

Feb 08, 2016

An increasingly powerful regulatory agency, a surge in rule-making activity and the lack of a vice chair to oversee these changes, should make the Federal Reserve's regulatory role a prominent topic of discussion for Congress during Chair Janet Yellen's hearing.
By David Beckworth, Ramesh Ponnuru |
Feb 08, 2016

Bold theses should receive skeptical reactions, and ours did. We argued in the New York Times that, contrary to what just about everyone believes, the financial crisis and the Great Recession that blew up the American economy in 2008 were not the necessary consequences of a housing bust.
Feb 04, 2016

See if this sounds familiar. The economy is in a deep slump. The Fed cuts interest rates close to zero and then tries quantitative easing (QE). A banking crisis begins in the United States and then spreads to Europe, where even sovereign debt is no longer safe. Individual countries are locked into a single monetary regime and unable to stimulate their economies. Am I my describing the Great Recession? Yes, but I’m also describing the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Now let’s push the comparison a bit further.
Jan 14, 2016

The Fed began a new chapter in its history in December by raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. A key reason for this historic liftoff of interest rates is the belief by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other monetary officials that the "natural" interest rate has risen and the Fed must follow suit. So what is this mysterious natural interest rate, and why must the Fed follow it?
By Todd Zywicki, Jason Johnston |
Dec 09, 2015

Early in October, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unleashed its latest effort to remake the American consumer credit system. This time, the bureau is targeting the provisions in consumer credit contracts that require disputes to be handled through arbitration rather than class action lawsuits. Our recent Mercatus Center working paper suggests that-despite the consumer protection rhetoric-class action lawyers, not consumers, will benefit from the bureau's anti-arbitration efforts.
Dec 04, 2015

In the debate over letting lawmakers scrutinize Federal Reserve Board policy, there is often confusion between telling the Fed what to do and just being able to know what the central bank does. While many disagree on exactly what level of independence the Fed should have, most will agree that there is some role for congressional oversight, or at least awareness, of monetary policy. For that oversight to occur, however, Congress must have a general understanding of what the Fed is doing, which is no easy task.

Charts

RegData, an online interactive tool, allows us to quantify the regulatory surge of Dodd-Frank in context. By analyzing the text of regulations and counting the words and phrases that signify a mandatory or prohibited activity—such as shall, must, may not, prohibited, and required—RegData gives a more meaningful measure of regulation than simply counting the number of new rules created or the number of pages added to the Federal Register.

Experts

Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and serves as chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. With colleague Alex Tabarrok, Cowen is coauthor of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution and cofounder of the online educational platform Marginal Revolution University.
Garett Jones is a senior scholar and BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism at the Mercatus Center and an associate professor of economics at George Mason University. He specializes in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and the microfoundations of economic growth.
Arnold Kling is a Mercatus Center–affiliated senior scholar at George Mason University and a member of the Financial Markets Working Group. He specializes in housing-finance policy, financial institutions, macroeconomics, and the inside workings of America’s federal financial institutions. He also is an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC.
Stephen Matteo Miller is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center. He is interested in the origins, effects and resolution of market crashes and financial crises.
Hester Peirce is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and director of the Financial Markets Working Group. Her primary research interests relate to the regulation of the financial markets.

Podcasts

Scott Sumner | January 05, 2016
China has recently undergone a bout of financial turmoil. Scott Sumner discusses its effect on the rest of the world on WWL Radio.

Upcoming Events

Recent Events

Hedge-fund manager Cliff Asness, one of the most influential—and outspoken—financial thinkers, will join Tyler Cowen for a wide-ranging intellectual dialogue as part of the Conversations with Tyler series.

Books

Scott Sumner | Dec 01, 2015
The Midas Paradox is a landmark treatise that solves mysteries that have long perplexed economic historians, and corrects misconceptions about the true causes, consequences, and cures of macroeconomic instability. Like Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, it is one of those rare books destined to shape all future research on the subject.

Media Clippings

Hester Peirce | Nov 13, 2014
This excerpt originally appeared in Bloomberg.
Stephen Matteo Miller | Nov 03, 2014
This excerpt originally appeared in the Washington Examiner.
Todd Zywicki | Oct 20, 2014
This excerpt originally appeared in the Washington Examiner.
Jason J. Fichtner | Jul 24, 2014
This excerpt originally appeared in FOX Business.
Jason J. Fichtner | Jul 17, 2014
This excerpt originally appeared in FOX Business.
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