Mar 26, 2014
This paper discusses arguments for and against a securities transaction tax (STT) and evaluates the pros and cons based on a review of empirical evidence concerning the impact of STTs on equity and futures markets (i.e., trading volume, bid-ask spreads, and price volatility) and market efficiency in various countries. I find that an STT would likely reduce trading volume and increase trading cost, but may not reduce price volatility. The size of potential STT revenue depends on the STT’s impact on market activity. A sizable STT on futures and equity markets would not only fail to generate the expected tax revenue, it would also likely hurt the international competitiveness of US equity and futures markets.
Dec 12, 2013
Every country faces an intertemporal budget constraint, which requires that its government’s future expenditures, including servicing its outstanding official debt, be covered by its government’s future receipts when measured in present value. The present value difference between a country’s future expenditures and its future receipts is its fiscal gap. The US fiscal gap now stands at $205 trillion. This is 10.3 percent of the estimated present value of all future US GDP. The United States needs to raise taxes, cut spending, or engage in a combination of these policies by an amount equal to 10.3 percent of annual GDP to close its fiscal gap. Closing the gap via raising taxes would require an immediate and permanent 57 percent increase in all federal taxes. Closing the gap via spending cuts (apart from servicing official (debt) would require an immediate and permanent 37 percent reduction in spending. This grave picture of America’s fiscal position effectively constitutes a declaration of bankruptcy.
Sep 17, 2013
The US federal tax code contains a number
of provisions designed to encourage
individuals to save for retirement. These
provisions allow individuals to avoid or
defer taxes if they choose to set aside a
portion of their income for future consumption.
When all of these provisions are combined, they
are the second largest “tax expenditure” category
as defined by the Joint Committee on Taxation.
The exclusion of retirement savings from taxation
causes some economic distortions, which we will
discuss in this paper. However, unlike some other
tax expenditures, there is a strong economic rationale
for not taxing savings. Higher rates of investment
lead to higher rates of economic growth, and
it may be sound policy for the tax code to encourage
this behavior, even after considering the economic
costs. Excluding retirement income from
taxation may also make the tax system more efficient,
even though most other tax expenditures
Sep 10, 2013
The exclusion of employer-provided health insurance from taxation lowers federal tax revenue significantly. According to the Office of Management and Budget, the federal government missed out on over $170 billion in income tax revenue and another $108 billion in payroll tax revenue in fiscal year 2012 due to the exclusion.1 Over the next five fiscal years, the federal government would collect around $1 trillion in income tax revenue if employer-provided health benefits were taxed, plus another $600 billion payroll tax revenue. Given the large deficits that the federal government continues to accumulate, this exclusion is a tempting source of new revenue. But closing this loophole would also mean a significant tax increase on all working Americans that currently receive health insurance from their employer.
Aug 21, 2013
Amid the recent debates about federal tax policy fairness, we critically compare various
measures of tax progressivity and the methodology used to estimate their value with empirical
data. First, we propose criteria for properly measuring tax progressivity and apply them to
these measures. Next, we propose criteria for evaluating the process of estimating these
measures with data on the distribution of income earned and taxes paid. Last, we examine
these various methods of measuring tax progressivity using an example dataset to reveal the
differences in tax-progressivity values produced by these various progressivity measures. The
analysis as a whole identifies a superior progressivity measure and estimation methodology
that can be applied to a more comprehensive set of income and tax-burden distribution data to
reveal a consistent and accurate measure of federal tax policy progressivity. This index is
capable of producing testable claims on the degree of progressivity, where these test results can
edify the normative federal tax policy debate.
Jun 17, 2013
The US economy is creating new wealth and growing employment, albeit at a slow pace. But uncertainty is the key word that describes the economic situation at mid-2013. There are major unknowns with respect to Fed policy, taxing and spending, the effects of Obamacare on employment, the implementation of Dodd-Frank financial reform, regulatory policy affecting the production of electricity, and the prospects for Europe’s recovery from an extended recession. Add to this pallid picture reductions in growth in China, India, and the developing world taking some of the edge off the global boom, which, in spite of that growth haircut, is still tugging away on America’s export growth.