Monetary Policy
By minimizing the harm caused by recessions and high inflations, monetary policy can promote economic stability and create an environment in which individuals and businesses prosper and thrive. In pursuit of these goals, Mercatus research shows why and how the Federal Reserve should (a) follow a rules-based approach to making policy, (b) increase its transparency and accountability to the public, and (c) better utilize market signals.
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Latest work in Monetary Policy
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George Selgin on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, Debanking, and the Fed’s Framework Review
Despite popular belief, building a strategic Bitcoin reserve is unlikely to strengthen the dollar or enhance its role as the world’s reserve currency.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Joey Politano on the AI Investment Boom and Trends in Economic Growth
While the recent surge in AI investment presents an opportunity to supercharge economic growth, the ongoing geopolitical battle with China remains a crucial obstacle to overcome.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | TV Appearance TV Appearance
Consumer Impact: Breaking Down the Latest US Inflation Numbers | Global Catholic Television Network’s News Nightly
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
An Effective Monetary Policy with Nominal GDP Level Targeting
The Federal Reserve should consider adopting a policy of nominal GDP level targeting, which is the best way to stabilize the labor market and the financial system while maintaining an average inflation rate of close to 2 percent
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Post-pandemic Inflation and Improving FAIT with Nominal GDP Level Targeting
Flexible average inflation targeting can be improved by dropping its asymmetry so that it is implemented as a form of nominal GDP level targeting
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Financial Stability and Nominal GDP Targeting
NGDP targeting is simpler, more intuitive, and more robust than the current monetary policy strategy
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
A Rule-Based Monetary Policy
Monetary policy remains a contentious topic, but historical evidence, particularly from the Volcker–Greenspan era, suggests that the rule-based approach would offer greater predictability, stability, transparency, and consistency in Fed policy
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
A Critique of Lars Svensson’s Arguments Against NGDP Targeting
Lars Svensson’s conclusion that nominal GDP targeting (NGDPT) is inferior to average inflation targeting rested upon several subtle fallacies, so the Fed should use its current framework review to reconsider NGDPT
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Targeting Nominal GDP Through Monetary Control
Instead of using flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) to control inflation, the Federal Reserve should shift its strategy to target the nation’s economic growth rate, measured as nominal (not adjusted for inflation) GDP
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Jeffrey Lacker on the History of Fed Credit Policy and the Four Doctrines of Fed Lending
It’s crucial to understand the history of credit policy at the Fed in order to effectively improve the system moving forward.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI
Assessing the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, it is clear that inflation remains the most significant driver of national voting patterns.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Fed’s 2024–25 Framework Review: Optimizing the Dual Mandate Through Nominal GDP Level Targeting
As the Federal Reserve considers how to implement its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, it should adopt—or approach—nominal GDP level targeting as a benchmark framework.
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Ellen Correia Golay on the Keys to Improving Treasury Market Resiliency
Over the past year, the Treasury Department has taken numerous crucial steps to enhance the resiliency and liquidity of the Treasury market.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Working Papers Working Papers
A New Measure of the Stance of Eurozone Monetary Policy
The NGDP gap can help policymakers assess whether current policy is on track
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
In order to prevent future financial crises, it is crucial to understand the causes of bank failures, and in particular, the deterioration of bank fundamentals.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
If the Fed were to review its operating system, it could consider transitioning from an ample-reserves framework to a tiered-reserves framework as a way to improve financial stability and minimize its financial footprint.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Podcast Appearance Podcast Appearance
Why Monetary Policy Rules Matter | “Let People Prosper” podcast
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Fed Needs To Learn from Its Inflation Mistakes – The Biggest Lesson | Barron’s
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
Understanding the linkages between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and economic growth are key to ensuring macroeconomic stability.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Research Papers Research Papers
Last Resort Lending: Classical Thought vs. Modern Federal Reserve Practice
Central banks used to play a far smaller role in credit markets than the Federal Reserve does today.
Latest work in Monetary Policy
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
George Selgin on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, Debanking, and the Fed’s Framework Review
Despite popular belief, building a strategic Bitcoin reserve is unlikely to strengthen the dollar or enhance its role as the world’s reserve currency.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Joey Politano on the AI Investment Boom and Trends in Economic Growth
While the recent surge in AI investment presents an opportunity to supercharge economic growth, the ongoing geopolitical battle with China remains a crucial obstacle to overcome.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | TV Appearance TV Appearance
Consumer Impact: Breaking Down the Latest US Inflation Numbers | Global Catholic Television Network’s News Nightly
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
An Effective Monetary Policy with Nominal GDP Level Targeting
The Federal Reserve should consider adopting a policy of nominal GDP level targeting, which is the best way to stabilize the labor market and the financial system while maintaining an average inflation rate of close to 2 percent
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Post-pandemic Inflation and Improving FAIT with Nominal GDP Level Targeting
Flexible average inflation targeting can be improved by dropping its asymmetry so that it is implemented as a form of nominal GDP level targeting
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Financial Stability and Nominal GDP Targeting
NGDP targeting is simpler, more intuitive, and more robust than the current monetary policy strategy
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
A Rule-Based Monetary Policy
Monetary policy remains a contentious topic, but historical evidence, particularly from the Volcker–Greenspan era, suggests that the rule-based approach would offer greater predictability, stability, transparency, and consistency in Fed policy
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
A Critique of Lars Svensson’s Arguments Against NGDP Targeting
Lars Svensson’s conclusion that nominal GDP targeting (NGDPT) is inferior to average inflation targeting rested upon several subtle fallacies, so the Fed should use its current framework review to reconsider NGDPT
- | Federal Reserve Framework Review Federal Reserve Framework Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Targeting Nominal GDP Through Monetary Control
Instead of using flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) to control inflation, the Federal Reserve should shift its strategy to target the nation’s economic growth rate, measured as nominal (not adjusted for inflation) GDP
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Jeffrey Lacker on the History of Fed Credit Policy and the Four Doctrines of Fed Lending
It’s crucial to understand the history of credit policy at the Fed in order to effectively improve the system moving forward.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI
Assessing the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, it is clear that inflation remains the most significant driver of national voting patterns.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Fed’s 2024–25 Framework Review: Optimizing the Dual Mandate Through Nominal GDP Level Targeting
As the Federal Reserve considers how to implement its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, it should adopt—or approach—nominal GDP level targeting as a benchmark framework.
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Ellen Correia Golay on the Keys to Improving Treasury Market Resiliency
Over the past year, the Treasury Department has taken numerous crucial steps to enhance the resiliency and liquidity of the Treasury market.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Working Papers Working Papers
A New Measure of the Stance of Eurozone Monetary Policy
The NGDP gap can help policymakers assess whether current policy is on track
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
In order to prevent future financial crises, it is crucial to understand the causes of bank failures, and in particular, the deterioration of bank fundamentals.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
If the Fed were to review its operating system, it could consider transitioning from an ample-reserves framework to a tiered-reserves framework as a way to improve financial stability and minimize its financial footprint.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Podcast Appearance Podcast Appearance
Why Monetary Policy Rules Matter | “Let People Prosper” podcast
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Fed Needs To Learn from Its Inflation Mistakes – The Biggest Lesson | Barron’s
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
Understanding the linkages between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and economic growth are key to ensuring macroeconomic stability.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Research Papers Research Papers
Last Resort Lending: Classical Thought vs. Modern Federal Reserve Practice
Central banks used to play a far smaller role in credit markets than the Federal Reserve does today.
Latest work in Monetary Policy
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q3 2023
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q2 2023
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Working Papers Working Papers
What Is the Monetary Standard? The Fed Should Tell Us
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
A New Coin of the Realm? Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Transparency at Federal Reserve Banks
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Research Papers Research Papers
Fifteen Years of Aggressive Discretionary Fiscal Policy
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Working Papers Working Papers
Nominal Income Expectations of Consumers
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q1 2023
- | Government Spending Government Spending
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Fiscal Dominance: How Worried Should We Be?
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Books Books
Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy
Published at "TheMoneyIllusion"
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- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Why There Is a Need for a New Fed History in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz’s A Monetary History
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q4 2022
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Research Papers Research Papers
Is the Quantity Theory Dead? Lessons from the Pandemic
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Research Papers Research Papers
What Kind of Landing: Soft or Hard?
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q3 2022
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Do Price Controls Work? Lessons from Hyperinflations under Dictatorial Regimes
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Working Papers Working Papers
The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed’s Framework
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Is Rising
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Policy Briefs Policy Briefs
The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q2 2022
Latest work in Monetary Policy
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
In order to prevent future financial crises, it is crucial to understand the causes of bank failures, and in particular, the deterioration of bank fundamentals.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
If the Fed were to review its operating system, it could consider transitioning from an ample-reserves framework to a tiered-reserves framework as a way to improve financial stability and minimize its financial footprint.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Podcast Appearance Podcast Appearance
Why Monetary Policy Rules Matter | “Let People Prosper” podcast
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
Understanding the linkages between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and economic growth are key to ensuring macroeconomic stability.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
As real-time economic analysis becomes an increasingly important part of the policymaking process, it’s more important than ever to ensure that statistical agencies receive the funding they need.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
Understanding the trinity of forces that drove the inflation surge during the pandemic period may provide valuable insights on how to prevent a similar episode in the future.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy
As Argentina’s economy continues to recover and rebound, transitioning to a dollarization policy may be the next step toward achieving economic revival.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate
When measuring the impacts of rising inflation on workers, it’s important to factor in the conflict costs associated with negotiating higher wages.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Podcast Appearance Podcast Appearance
The Performance of the Fed During the Recent Inflationary Cycle | The Society of Professional Economists’ “Econ Thoughts” (podcast)
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks
Recent data reveals that when U.S. presidents exert political pressure on the Federal Reserve, significant swings in inflation often follow.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Matthew Pines on the Geopolitical and National Security Implications of Cryptocurrency Adoption
Expanding institutional cryptocurrency adoption could be a crucial strategy for helping curb the expansion of China’s growing digital authoritarianism across the globe.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Travis Hill on the Discount Window, Receivership Funding, and Financial Tokenization
Establishing a new pre-positioning rule could be a novel solution that would help normalize and destigmatize the use of the discount window moving forward.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Radio Appearance Radio Appearance
Should The Fed Cut Rates? | WTAN Radio
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- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Catherine Pakaluk on *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth*
As birth rates continue to decline around the globe, it’s important to recognize the wide range of benefits that come with having more children and larger families.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Stephen Miran on Activist Treasury Issuance and the Monetary Policy Implications of a Second Trump Term
While the actions of the Treasury have helped facilitate the Fed’s recent goals of achieving a soft landing, its potential political motivations in doing so should not be ignored.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Carola Binder on the History of Inflation, the Fed Framework Review, and the Promise of Nominal GDP Targeting
The history of inflation in the US provides the Fed and other policymakers plenty of lessons for how to more effectively stabilize prices as the economy continues to evolve.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | TV Appearance TV Appearance
Stocks Rise as Federal Reserve Rates Expected To Be Cut | Global Catholic Television Network
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Radio Appearance Radio Appearance
When Interest Rate Cuts Come, Where Will You Feel Them First? | Marketplace Radio
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Samim Ghamami on How to Reform the Treasury Market
Broadening access to the standing repo facility may be the most effective first step towards reforming the Treasury market.

- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Mercatus Original Podcasts Mercatus Original Podcasts
- | Macro Musings Macro Musings
Kyla Scanlon on the “Vibecession”, the Vibe Economy, and the Path to Growing American Wealth
As the US continues to navigate through the post-pandemic Vibecession landscape, it’s more important than ever to bridge the disconnect between the American people and their perception of the economy.

Latest work in Monetary Policy
Latest work in Monetary Policy
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- | Announcements Announcements
Former Richmond Fed President Lacker Joins Mercatus
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
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Dollarization Won’t Solve Argentina’s Fiscal Problems | The Hill
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
Will the Economy Get Better in 2024? | Washington Examiner
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
Argentina’s Best Hope: Dollarization | City Journal
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
Taking a Close Look at the Economic Situation: September 2023 | Groundbreak Carolinas
- | Government Spending Government Spending
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
First Anniversary of Inflation Reduction Act | WSPD radio’s “The Scott Sands Show” (OH)
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
Biden’s Union Support Could Get in the Way of His Industrial Policy | National Review’s “The Corner”
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
Do Aging Politicians Help Explain the US Credit Rating Downgrade? | The Washington Examiner
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
US Downgrade: 20 Years of Erosion of Governance | National Review’s “The Corner”
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Money Supply Predicted Inflation’s Fall. Who’s Actually Surprised? | The Washington Examiner
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Solution to the Inflation-interpretation Debate | National Review
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
Why We Don’t Need To Tolerate Higher Inflation | Tribune News Service
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Legacy of Trailblazing Economist Robert Lucas | Discourse
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- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Fed Has Overseen a Remarkable Transfer of Wealth From Bondholders to Taxpayers | Barron's
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
It’s Time for the Fed to Take a Breath | National Review
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- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Role of Sound Monetary Policy in an Abundance Agenda | Discourse
- | Monetary Policy Monetary Policy
- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
‘Team Permanent’ (Mostly) Won the Inflation Debate | National Review
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- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
The Money Supply Is Shrinking: The Fed Should Pay More Attention | National Review
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- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary
What Would it Mean to Abolish the Bank of Canada? | EconLib
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- | Expert Commentary Expert Commentary